The elections of 2014 were very special due to the defeat of Congress mainly because of its own party leader, Mani Shankar Iyer who pin pointed Narendra Modi as “Chai Wala” and he doesn’t deserve to be the Prime Minister. This made a large number of people angry and congress gave them a reason to vote against them. Secondly, “Aache Din Ane Wale Hai” and “Chai pe Charcha” also gave a positive impact on the people of the country. Narendra Modi’s extraordinary speaking skills didn’t let anyone to even stand against him. He was supported and followed by large section of the country. But, in 2019 the situations may be different.
Situations that can be expected in 2019 are :
- Role of Independent Parties : The results of all 6 state assembly polls have proved that the hyped Modi Wave for BJP is useless and is getting over. Big National Parties got a smaller shares of vote in assembly polls than National elections due to presence of Independent candidates, regional parties causing split voting. This is the reason that not only BJP but Congress also witnessed a drop of vote shares in assembly elections by virtue of being a National Party. A large overlap can be seen, a swing of 0.5% to 1% of overall votes can cause big changes in the electoral fortunes of party. For instance BJP alliance won 31 out of 40 seats in Bihar in 2014 but won less than 60 out of 243 in Assembly 2015. There is no denying that if National polls happen, BJP alliance might get close to its 2014 performance.
- Personality Centralized : Elections is India are getting centralized to personality. Nitish Kumar, Kejriwal, Mamta, Jaylalita, Shivraj Chouhan are some examples. There does not seem to be a strong face against Modi but these personalities can cause a dramatic change in the shares of votes in their states respectively.
- Performace : BJP after winning 2014 elections have shown good performance so far with good ties with America and other countries. PM Narendra Modi’s visits to many countries showing cooperation and treaties being signed for the development of the country. No charges of corruption has also been made on Modi government. These factors may also word good well for BJP
- A New Congress : Congress of 2019 will be totally different from the Congress of 2014. It will align with regional parties. Ministers of Congresses have also been seen joining BJP. Recently 8 MLA’s left congress to join BJP
BJP can do more better in north-east in 2019 elections than 2014 elections due to support from regional parties.
WHY I THINK BJP WILL WIN 2019 ELECTIONS ?
- Modi’s transparent policies, development focus and easing the complex laws and procedures that common people usually deal with, will help him carry Modi Wave.
- No strong opposition face to stand against him in 2019 elections so far.
- He and his government is not corrupt and there has not been a single case of corruption against BJP government.
- BJP has spread throughout India except some states like West Bengal, Telangana, Arunachal Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. BJP is trying to align with regional parties in these states. It also has alliance in Arunachal Pradesh.
- It’s foreign policy is serving as a desired model and is being appreciated by everyone.
Country is now visible at world stage and is undergoing development.
- The idea of BJP to keep transparency and being in news for its development projects, cooperation to states will also help it to maintain the wave and win 2019 elections.
The only things that BJP should do to win 2019 elections is that Firstly, BJP should be clear : who are their alliance partners? And what are their strengths and weaknesses. Secondly, BJP won 2014 elections due to big win in Uttar Pradesh. Now with opposition being divided, the majority and Dalits get divided too. So BJP should try to get support of Dalits too as they did in 2014. They can align with regional parties to secure their win over UP. Thirdly, even the BJP is strong in other states like Haryana, Jharkhand, Gujarat etc, it is better for party to have local alliance which will help the party to get more number of seats.